Adaptive foraging of pollinators fosters gradual tipping under resource competition and rapid environmental change.

Plant and pollinator communities are vital for transnational food chains. Like many natural systems, they are affected by global change: rapidly deteriorating conditions threaten their numbers. Previous theoretical studies identified the potential for community-wide collapse above critical levels of environmental stressors-so-called bifurcation-induced tipping points. Fortunately, even as conditions deteriorate, individuals have some adaptive capacity, potentially increasing the boundary for a safe operating space where changes in ecological processes are reversible. Our study considers this adaptive capacity of pollinators to resource availability and identifies a new threat to disturbed pollinator communities. We model the adaptive foraging of pollinators in changing environments. Pollinator's adaptive foraging alters the dynamical responses of species, to the advantage of some-typically generalists-and the disadvantage of others, with systematic non-linear and non-monotonic effects on the abundance of particular species. We show that, in addition to the extent of environmental stress, the pace of change of environmental stress can also lead to the early collapse of both adaptive and nonadaptive pollinator communities. Specifically, perturbed communities exhibit rate-induced tipping points at stress levels within the safe boundary defined for constant stressors. With adaptive foraging, tipping is a more asynchronous collapse of species compared to nonadaptive pollinator communities, meaning that not all pollinator species reach a tipping event simultaneously. These results suggest that it is essential to consider the adaptive capacity of pollinator communities for monitoring and conservation. Both the extent and the rate of stress change relative to the ability of communities to recover are critical environmental boundaries.

Intermittent migration can induce pulses of speciation in a two-island system.

Geographic barriers can come and go depending on natural conditions. These fluctuations cause population cycles of expansion and contraction, introducing intermittent migrations that may not hinder speciation but rather promote diversification. Here, we study a neutral 2-island speciation model with intermittent migration driven by sea-level fluctuations. Seabed depth modulates isolation and connection periods between the islands, with migration occurring during connection periods with a certain probability. Mating is restricted to genetically compatible individuals on the same island and offspring inherit genomes from both parents through recombination. We observe speciation pulses that would not occur under strict isolation or continuous migration, with infrequent, temporary increases in species richness happening at different times depending on the combination of geographic settings and migration probability. The resulting dynamic patterns of richness exhibit contrasting behavior between connected and isolated scenarios, often including species that do not persist. Prolonged isolation can reduce richness to 1 species per island, resembling patterns commonly associated with archipelagos under sea-level fluctuations. Together with other studies, our results in out-of-equilibrium populations support the relevance of investigating the impact of variable migration on diversification, particularly in regions of high diversity.

Evolution of cooperation in a two-species system with a common resource pool.

Understanding the evolution of cooperation is a major question in Evolutionary Biology. Here, we extend a previously proposed mathematical model in Evolutionary Game Theory that investigated how resource use by a single species composed of cooperators and defectors may lead to its maintenance or extinction. We include another species in the model, so as to investigate how different intra and interspecific interactions of cooperative or competitive nature among individuals that share the same essential resource may drive the survival and evolution of the species. Several outcomes emerge from the model, depending on the configuration of the payoff matrix, the individual contribution to the resource pool, the competition intensity between species, and the initial conditions of the system dynamics. Observed results include scenarios in which species thrive due to the action of cooperators, but also scenarios in which both species collapse due to lack of cooperation and, consequently, of resources. In particular, a high initial availability of resources may be the determinant factor to the survival of both species. Interestingly, cooperation may be more favored when individuals have less incentive to cooperate with others, and the survival of their populations may depend crucially on their competitive capacities.

Effect of Host-Switching on the Ecological and Evolutionary Patterns of Parasites.

Speciation via host-switching is a macroevolutionary process that emerges from a microevolutionary dynamic where individual parasites switch hosts, establish a new association, and reduce reproductive contact with the original parasite lineage. Phylogenetic distance and geographic distribution of the hosts have been shown to be determinants of the capacity and opportunity of the parasite to change hosts. Although speciation via host-switching has been reported in many host-parasite systems, its dynamic on the individual, population and community levels is poorly understood. Here we propose a theoretical model to simulate parasite evolution considering host-switching events on the microevolutionary scale, taking into account the macroevolutionary history of the hosts, to evaluate how host-switching can affect ecological and evolutionary patterns of parasites in empirical communities at regional and local scales. In the model, parasite individuals can switch hosts under variable intensity and have their evolution driven by mutation and genetic drift. Mating is sexual and only individuals that are sufficiently similar can produce offspring. We assumed that parasite evolution occurs at the same evolutionary time scale as their hosts, and that the intensity of host-switching decreases as the host species differentiate. Ecological and evolutionary patterns were characterized by the turnover of parasite species among host species, and parasite evolutionary tree imbalance respectively. We found a range of host-switching intensity that reproduces ecological and evolutionary patterns observed in empirical communities. Our results showed that turnover decreased as host-switching intensity increased, with low variation among the model replications. On the other hand, tree imbalance showed wide variation and non-monotonic tendency. We concluded that tree imbalance was sensitive to stochastic events, whereas turnover may be a good indicator of host-switching. We found that local communities corresponded to higher host-switching intensity when compared to regional communities, highlighting that spatial scale is a limitation for host-switching. [Dispersal of parasites, opportunity and capacity of interaction, phylogenetic conservatism, and community structure.].

Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis.

Background: Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil. Methods: We fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out. We estimated the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios. Findings: We estimated that more than 165,000 individuals above 60 years of age were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 104,000 hospitalisations could have been averted if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 58 thousand lives were saved by vaccinations in the period analysed for the same age group and that an additional 47 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian government started the vaccination programme earlier. Interpretation: Our estimates provided a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing the suffering and loss of older Brazilian adults. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic. Funding: The Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brazil (Finance Code 001 to F.M.D.M. and L.S.F.), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - Brazil (grant number: 315854/2020-0 to M.E.B., 141698/2018-7 to R.L.P.d.S., 313055/2020-3 to P.I.P., 311832/2017-2 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo - Brazil (contract number: 2016/01343-7 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil (grant number: E-26/201.277/2021 to L.S.B.) and Inova Fiocruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Brazil (grant number: 48401485034116) to L.S.B., O.G.C. and M.G.d.F.C. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.

Diversity patterns and speciation processes in a two-island system with continuous migration.

Geographic isolation is a central mechanism of speciation, but perfect isolation of populations is rare. Although speciation can be hindered if gene flow is large, intermediate levels of migration can enhance speciation by introducing genetic novelty in the semi-isolated populations or founding small communities of migrants. Here, we consider a two-island neutral model of speciation with continuous migration and study diversity patterns as a function of the migration probability, population size, and number of genes involved in reproductive isolation (dubbed as genome size). For small genomes, low levels of migration induce speciation on the islands that otherwise would not occur. Diversity, however, drops sharply to a single species inhabiting both islands as the migration probability increases. For large genomes, sympatric speciation occurs even when the islands are strictly isolated. Then species richness per island increases with the probability of migration, but the total number of species decreases as they become cosmopolitan. For each genome size, there is an optimal migration intensity for each population size that maximizes the number of species. We discuss the observed modes of speciation induced by migration and how they increase species richness in the insular system while promoting asymmetry between the islands and hindering endemism.

Assessing the best time interval between doses in a two-dose vaccination regimen to reduce the number of deaths in an ongoing epidemic of SARS-CoV-2.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a major concern all over the world and, as vaccines became available at the end of 2020, optimal vaccination strategies were subjected to intense investigation. Considering their critical role in reducing disease burden, the increasing demand outpacing production, and that most currently approved vaccines follow a two-dose regimen, the cost-effectiveness of delaying the second dose to increment the coverage of the population receiving the first dose is often debated. Finding the best solution is complex due to the trade-off between vaccinating more people with lower level of protection and guaranteeing higher protection to a fewer number of individuals. Here we present a novel extended age-structured SEIR mathematical model that includes a two-dose vaccination schedule with a between-doses delay modelled through delay differential equations and linear optimization of vaccination rates. By maintaining the minimum stock of vaccines under a given production rate, we evaluate the dose interval that minimizes the number of deaths. We found that the best strategy depends on an interplay between the vaccine production rate and the relative efficacy of the first dose. In the scenario of low first-dose efficacy, it is always better to vaccinate the second dose as soon as possible, while for high first-dose efficacy, the best strategy of time window depends on the production rate and also on second-dose efficacy provided by each type of vaccine. We also found that the rate of spread of the infection does not affect significantly the thresholds of the best window, but is an important factor in the absolute number of total deaths. These conclusions point to the need to carefully take into account both vaccine characteristics and roll-out speed to optimize the outcome of vaccination strategies.

Shannon information criterion for low-high diversity transition in Moran and voter models.

Mutation and drift play opposite roles in genetics. While mutation creates diversity, drift can cause gene variants to disappear, especially when they are rare. In the absence of natural selection and migration, the balance between the drift and mutation in a well-mixed population defines its diversity. The Moran model captures the effects of these two evolutionary forces and has a counterpart in social dynamics, known as the voter model with external opinion influencers. Two extreme outcomes of the voter model dynamics are consensus and coexistence of opinions, which correspond to low and high diversity in the Moran model. Here we use a Shannon's information-theoretic approach to characterize the smooth transition between the states of consensus and coexistence of opinions in the voter model. Mapping the Moran into the voter model, we extend the results to the mutation-drift balance and characterize the transition between low and high diversity in finite populations. Describing the population as a network of connected individuals, we show that the transition between the two regimes depends on the network topology of the population and on the possible asymmetries in the mutation rates.

Brazil in the face of new SARS-CoV-2 variants: emergencies and challenges in public health.

This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.

Interaction generalisation and demographic feedbacks drive the resilience of plant-insect networks to extinctions.

Understanding the processes driving ecological resilience, that is the extent to which systems retain their structure while absorbing perturbations, is a central challenge for theoretical and applied ecologists. Plant-insect assemblages are well-suited for the study of ecological resilience as they are species-rich and encompass a variety of ecological interactions that correspond to essential ecosystem functions. Mechanisms affecting community response to perturbations depend on both the natural history and structure of ecological interactions. Natural history attributes of the interspecific interactions, for example whether they are mutualistic or antagonistic, may affect the ecological resilience by controlling the demographic feedbacks driving ecological dynamics at the community level. Interaction generalisation may also affect resilience, by defining opportunities for interaction rewiring, the extent to which species are able to switch interactions in fluctuating environments. These natural history attributes may also interact with network structure to affect ecological resilience. Using adaptive network models, we investigated the resilience of plant-pollinator and plant-herbivore networks to species loss. We specifically investigated how fundamental natural history differences between these systems, namely the demographic consequences of the interaction and their level of generalisation-mediating rewiring opportunities-affect the resilience of dynamic ecological networks to extinctions. We also create a general benchmark for the effect of network structure on resilience simulating extinctions on theoretical networks with controlled structures. When network structure was static, pollination networks were less resilient than herbivory networks; this is related to their high levels of nestedness and the reciprocally positive feedbacks that define mutualisms, which made co-extinction cascades more likely and longer in plant-pollinator assemblages. When considering interaction rewiring, the high generalisation and the structure of pollination networks boosted their resilience to extinctions, which approached those of herbivory networks. Simulation results using theoretical networks suggested that the empirical structure of herbivory networks may protect them from collapse. Elucidating the ecological and evolutionary processes driving interaction rewiring is key to understanding the resilience of plant-insect assemblages. Accounting for rewiring requires ecologists to combine natural history with network models that incorporate feedbacks between species abundances, traits and interactions. This combination will elucidate how perturbations propagate at community level, reshaping biodiversity structure and ecosystem functions.

Compreender os processos que governam a resiliência dos sistemas ecológicos, i.e. o quanto sistemas ecológicos conservam sua estrutura enquanto absorvem perturbações, é um desafio central para ecólogos teóricos e aplicados. Comunidades de insetos e plantas são bons modelos para o estudo da resiliência ecológica pois são ricos em espécies, representando uma grande diversidade de interações ecológicas que correspondem a serviços ecossistêmicos essenciais. Os mecanismos que afetam a resposta de comunidades ecológicas a perturbações dependem tanto da história natural quanto da estrutura das interações ecológicas. A história natural de interações interespecíficas, e.g. se a interação é mutualística ou antagonística, pode afetar a resiliência do sistema ao controlar as retroalimentações demográficas que governam a dinâmica ecológica no nível da comunidade. Generalismo nas interações também pode afetar resiliência ao definir as oportunidades de rewiring de interações, i.e. o quanto espécies são capazes de mudar interações em ambientes instáveis. Atributos da história natural das interações podem também interagir com a estrutura de redes ecológicas de forma a influenciar a resiliência de sistemas ecológicos. Usando modelos de redes adaptativas, investigamos a resiliência de redes polinizador-planta e herbívoro-planta à perda de espécies. Especificamente, investigamos como diferenças fundamentais na história natural dos dois sistemas, isto é, as consequências demográficas da interação e seu grau de generalização - que mediam as oportunidades de rewiring - afetam a resiliência de redes ecológicas dinâmicas a extinções. Também criamos um referencial teórico e abrangente para o efeito da estrutura das redes em sua resiliência, simulando extinções em redes teóricas com estruturas controladas. Quando a estrutura das redes foi considerada estática, redes de polinização foram menos resilientes do que redes de herbivoria; o que está associado aos maiores níveis de aninhamento e aos efeitos demográficos positivos e recíprocos que definem mutualismos, aumentando a probabilidade e o comprimento das cascatas de extinção em redes polinizador-planta. Ao incorporar rewiring de interações, a alta generalização e a estrutura das redes de polinização impulsionou sua resiliência a extinções, que se aproximou da resiliência de redes de herbivoria. Os resultados das simulações com redes teóricas sugerem que estrutura de redes de herbivoria protegem esses sistemas do colapso. Compreender quais processos ecológicos e evolutivos governam o rewiring de interações é chave se queremos prever a resiliência de sistemas inseto-planta. Para incorporar rewiring de interações, será necessário combinar conhecimento sobre história natural com modelos de rede que incorporem a retroalimentação entre abundâncias, atributos e interações das espécies envolvidas. Essa combinação elucidará como perturbações se propagam no nível de comunidades ecológicas, reconfigurando a estrutura da biodiversidade e suas funções ecossistêmicas.

Letter to the Scientific Community: Brazil in face of the new SARS-CoV-2 variants / Carta à Comunidade Científica: o Brasil frente às novas variantes de SARSCoV- 2

This letter discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain, called P1, more transmissible and with possible associated reinfection.  Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, all of which found increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent actions: the establishment of genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests  to sequencing; an immediate effort to identify reinfections associated with the new variant, updating its definition protocols; and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil in respect to the new variant.  We also propose the improvement of the Brazilian health surveillance system, which should be articulated with genomic surveillance, in order to respond more timely to future emergencies. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.

Esta carta discute a situação epidêmica da Covid-19 no Brasil frente aoaparecimento de uma nova linhagem, chamada P1, mais transmissível e compossível re-infecção associada. Tendo em vista o colapso do atendimentohospitalar em Manaus em janeiro de 2021 e os resultados de três preprintsrecentes, todos encontrando maior transmissibilidade da variante P.1, propomos algumas ações urgentes: o estabelecimento de uma vigilância genômica baseada em diagnóstico em múltiplos passos, iniciando com os testes do tipo RT-PCR até o sequenciamento; um esforço imediato na identificação de re-infecções associadas à nova variante, atualizando os seus protocolos de definição; e estudos sobre a eficácia das vacinas atualmente disponíveis no Brasil na vigência da nova variante. Propomos, ademais, o aprimoramento do sistema de vigilância em saúde brasileiro, que seja articulado com a vigilância genômica, de forma a responder mais oportunamente a emergências futuras. Chamamos os agentes públicos implicados na vigilância em saúde para que compartilhem dados e informações referentes à epidemia de forma clara, rápida e transparente. Finalmente propomos um maior engajamento na cooperação inter-institucional de todos os envolvidos na resposta e produção de conhecimento sobre a pandemia em nosso país.

Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) P.1 (Gamma variant) emerged in the Amazonas State, Brazil, in November 2020. The epidemiological consequences of its mutations have not been widely studied, despite detection of P.1 in 36 countries, with local transmission in at least 5 countries. A range of mutations are seen in P.1, ten of them in the spike protein. It shares mutations with VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7, Alpha variant) and South Africa (B.1.351, Beta variant). Methods: We estimated the transmissibility and reinfection of P.1 using a model-based approach, fitting data from the national health surveillance of hospitalized individuals and frequency of the P.1 variant in Manaus from December-2020 to February-2021. Results: Here we estimate that the new variant is about 2.6 times more transmissible (95% Confidence Interval: 2.4-2.8) than previous circulating variant(s). Manaus already had a high prevalence of individuals previously affected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and our fitted model attributed 28% of Manaus cases in the period to reinfections by P.1, confirming the importance of reinfection by this variant. This value is in line with estimates from blood donors samples in Manaus city. Conclusions: Our estimates rank P.1 as one of the most transmissible among the SARS-CoV-2 VOCs currently identified, and potentially as transmissible as the posteriorly detected VOC B.1.617.2 (Delta variant), posing a serious threat and requiring measures to control its global spread.

Brazil in the face of new SARS-CoV-2 variants: emergencies and challenges in public health / O Brasil perante as novas variantes de SARS-CoV-2: emergências e desafios em saúde pública

ABSTRACT: This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.

RESUMO: Este artigo discute a situação epidêmica da COVID-19 no Brasil diante do aparecimento de uma nova linhagem, chamada P.1, mais transmissível e com possível reinfecção associada. Tendo em vista o colapso do atendimento hospitalar em Manaus em janeiro de 2021 e os resultados de três preprints recentes, dos quais todos encontraram maior transmissibilidade da variante P.1, propomos algumas ações urgentes: o estabelecimento de uma vigilância genômica baseada em diagnóstico em múltiplos passos, iniciando com os testes do tipo transcrição reversa seguida de reação em cadeia da polimerase (RT-PCR) até o sequenciamento; um esforço imediato na identificação de reinfecções associadas à nova variante, com a atualização dos protocolos de definição; e estudos sobre a eficácia das vacinas disponíveis no Brasil na vigência da nova variante. Propomos, ademais, o aprimoramento do sistema de vigilância em saúde brasileiro para que seja articulado com a vigilância genômica, de forma a responder mais oportunamente a emergências futuras. Chamamos os agentes públicos implicados na vigilância em saúde para que compartilhem dados e informações referentes à epidemia de forma clara, rápida e transparente. Finalmente propomos maior engajamento na cooperação interinstitucional de todos os envolvidos na resposta e produção de conhecimento sobre a pandemia em nosso país.

Structural vulnerability of hospitals, cemeteries, and crematoriums of the city of São Paulo to COVID-19 / Vulnerabilidade estrutural dos hospitais e cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo à COVID-19

This is the first report by the COVID19 Observatory - Group: Contagion Networks analyzing mortality data from the city of São Paulo. In this report, we integrated mortality data for the city of São Paulo between 04/02/2020 and 04/28/2020, with information on the flow of victims between hospitals and cemeteries/crematoriums. We included in our analyzes both confirmed and suspected deaths from COVID-19. The main objectives of this report were: (1) to describe the structure of the flow of victims between locations and (2) to suggest changes in the current flow based on geographical distances in order to avoid a potential overload of the mortuary system. We suggest that the city of São Paulo should plan for a potential overload of the mortuary system (that is, the number of burials), based on the presented results. Thus, our results reinforce the need to adopt specific planning for the management of the extraordinary number of victims of this pandemic. Our predictions are based on the structural analysis of the COVID-19 victim flow network, which shows several hotspots with high vulnerability to system overload. These hotspots concentrate with either the greatest number of deaths (hospital) or of burials (cemetery or crematorium), and therefore have high potential to become overwhelmed by receiving many bodies due to the increase in victims of the pandemic. We recommend special attention to be given to localities on the east side of São Paulo, which has both the most vulnerable hospitals in the city, and also houses cemeteries and crematoriums that have a central role in the network and / or are vulnerable. Based on our optimization analysis, we suggest logistical changes in the current flow of bodies from hospitals to cemeteries/crematoriums so as not to overload the funeral system and minimize transportation costs. In this sense, our results are potentially useful for improving the operational planning of the Municipality of São Paulo, ratifying or rectifying actions underway at the municipal level.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio analisando os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo. Neste relatório, integramos os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo entre os dias 02/04/2020 e 28/04/2020 com informações sobre o fluxo de vítimas entre os hospitais e os cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo. Incluímos em nossas análises óbitos confirmados e óbitos suspeitos de COVID-19. Os principais objetivos deste relatório são: (1) descrever a estrutura do fluxo de vítimas entre localidades e (2) sugerir mudanças no fluxo com base em distâncias geográficas de maneira a evitar uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário. Sugere-se à prefeitura da cidade de São Paulo que seja realizado um planejamento para uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário (isto é, número de sepultamentos) da cidade de São Paulo com base nos resultados apresentados. Desta forma, nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade de ser adotado planejamento específico para a gestão dos casos extraordinários visualizados no contexto da pandemia. Esta previsão está baseada na análise estrutural da rede de fluxos de vítimas da COVID-19, que indica a concentração de vários locais com alta vulnerabilidade à sobrecarga do sistema. Tais locais concentram a maior quantidade de óbitos (hospitais) ou a maior concentração de sepultamentos (cemitérios ou crematórios) e tem portanto alto potencial de tornarem-se sobrecarregados por receberem muitos corpos devido ao aumento de vítimas da pandemia. Recomenda-se especial atenção à localidades da zona leste de São Paulo, que apresenta os hospitais mais vulneráveis da cidade e abriga cemitérios e crematórios que possuem papel central na rede e/ou encontram-se vulneráveis. Com base em nossa análise de otimização, sugerimos mudanças logísticas no atual fluxo de corpos de hospitais para cemitérios/crematórios de modo a não sobrecarregar o sistema funerário e minimizar os custos de transporte. Neste sentido, nossos resultados são potencialmente úteis ao aperfeiçoamento do planejamento operacional da Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, ratificando ou retificando ações em curso no âmbito municipal.

Vulnerability of micro-regions within Northeast Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões do Nordeste brasileiro à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

Report from "Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa" for the Northeast Region of Brazil. We combined data on confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) as reported by public authorities by 02/04 and structural analyses of road transport networks within and between the nine States of Northeast Brazil to predict the potential influence of the 187 micro-regions on the geographic propagation of the pandemic.  

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID1920 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Nordeste do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Nordeste, conforme disponível até o dia 02/04, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões nordestinas na propagação da doença.

Vulnerability of the micro-regions of the South of Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões da Região Sul do Brasil à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

This is the first report of the 'Observatório COVID191 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa' for the South region of Brazil. We have combined data of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for the South available up to 17/04/2020, with structural analyses of road networks, from within and between states, to estimate the vulnerability and potential influence of the South micro-regions to propagate the disease.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Sul do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Sul, disponíveis até o dia 17/04/2020, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões sulinas na propagação da doença.

Signatures of Microevolutionary Processes in Phylogenetic Patterns.

Phylogenetic trees are representations of evolutionary relationships among species and contain signatures of the processes responsible for the speciation events they display. Inferring processes from tree properties, however, is challenging. To address this problem, we analyzed a spatially-explicit model of speciation where genome size and mating range can be controlled. We simulated parapatric and sympatric (narrow and wide mating range, respectively) radiations and constructed their phylogenetic trees, computing structural properties such as tree balance and speed of diversification. We showed that parapatric and sympatric speciation are well separated by these structural tree properties. Balanced trees with constant rates of diversification only originate in sympatry and genome size affected both the balance and the speed of diversification of the simulated trees. Comparison with empirical data showed that most of the evolutionary radiations considered to have developed in parapatry or sympatry are in good agreement with model predictions. Even though additional forces other than spatial restriction of gene flow, genome size, and genetic incompatibilities, do play a role in the evolution of species formation, the microevolutionary processes modeled here capture signatures of the diversification pattern of evolutionary radiations, regarding the symmetry and speed of diversification of lineages.

A genetic approach to the rock-paper-scissors game.

Polymorphisms are usually associated with defenses and mating strategies, affecting the individual's fitness. Coexistence of different morphs is, therefore, not expected, since the fittest morph should outcompete the others. Nevertheless, coexistence is observed in many natural systems. For instance, males of the side-blotched lizards (Uta stansburiana) present three morphs with throat colors orange, yellow and blue, which are associated with mating strategies and territorial behavior. The three male morphs compete for females in a system that is well described by the rock-paper-scissors dynamics of game theory. Previous studies have modeled the lizards as hermaphroditic populations whose individual's behavior were determined only by their phenotypes. Here we consider an extension of this dynamical system where diploidy and sexual reproduction are explicitly taken into account. Similarly to the lizards we represent the genetic system by a single locus with three alleles, o, y, and b in a diploid chromosome with dominance of o over y and of y over b. We show that this genotypic description of the dynamics results in the same equilibrium phenotype frequencies as the phenotypic models, but affects the stability of the system, changing the parameter region where coexistence of the three morphs is possible in a rock-paper-scissors game.

Nestedness across biological scales.

Biological networks pervade nature. They describe systems throughout all levels of biological organization, from molecules regulating metabolism to species interactions that shape ecosystem dynamics. The network thinking revealed recurrent organizational patterns in complex biological systems, such as the formation of semi-independent groups of connected elements (modularity) and non-random distributions of interactions among elements. Other structural patterns, such as nestedness, have been primarily assessed in ecological networks formed by two non-overlapping sets of elements; information on its occurrence on other levels of organization is lacking. Nestedness occurs when interactions of less connected elements form proper subsets of the interactions of more connected elements. Only recently these properties began to be appreciated in one-mode networks (where all elements can interact) which describe a much wider variety of biological phenomena. Here, we compute nestedness in a diverse collection of one-mode networked systems from six different levels of biological organization depicting gene and protein interactions, complex phenotypes, animal societies, metapopulations, food webs and vertebrate metacommunities. Our findings suggest that nestedness emerge independently of interaction type or biological scale and reveal that disparate systems can share nested organization features characterized by inclusive subsets of interacting elements with decreasing connectedness. We primarily explore the implications of a nested structure for each of these studied systems, then theorize on how nested networks are assembled. We hypothesize that nestedness emerges across scales due to processes that, although system-dependent, may share a general compromise between two features: specificity (the number of interactions the elements of the system can have) and affinity (how these elements can be connected to each other). Our findings suggesting occurrence of nestedness throughout biological scales can stimulate the debate on how pervasive nestedness may be in nature, while the theoretical emergent principles can aid further research on commonalities of biological networks.

Modelling the heart as a communication system.

Electrical communication between cardiomyocytes can be perturbed during arrhythmia, but these perturbations are not captured by conventional electrocardiographic metrics. We developed a theoretical framework to quantify electrical communication using information theory metrics in two-dimensional cell lattice models of cardiac excitation propagation. The time series generated by each cell was coarse-grained to 1 when excited or 0 when resting. The Shannon entropy for each cell was calculated from the time series during four clinically important heart rhythms: normal heartbeat, anatomical reentry, spiral reentry and multiple reentry. We also used mutual information to perform spatial profiling of communication during these cardiac arrhythmias. We found that information sharing between cells was spatially heterogeneous. In addition, cardiac arrhythmia significantly impacted information sharing within the heart. Entropy localized the path of the drifting core of spiral reentry, which could be an optimal target of therapeutic ablation. We conclude that information theory metrics can quantitatively assess electrical communication among cardiomyocytes. The traditional concept of the heart as a functional syncytium sharing electrical information cannot predict altered entropy and information sharing during complex arrhythmia. Information theory metrics may find clinical application in the identification of rhythm-specific treatments which are currently unmet by traditional electrocardiographic techniques.